:Product: 1218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
18/1651Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20
Dec, 21 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 426 km/s at
18/1409Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/0514Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/1320Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 623 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Dec, 20 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Dec). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20
Dec, 21 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Dec 213
Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec 220/225/220
90 Day Mean        18 Dec 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  010/010-014/015-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/15
Minor Storm           20/20/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/50/20