:Product: 1220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
20/0028Z from Region 2242 (S19W44). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Dec, 22
Dec, 23 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
406 km/s at 19/2212Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/1840Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/0259Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 388 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (21 Dec), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (22 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (23 Dec). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    40/40/40
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Dec 203
Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec 205/205/200
90 Day Mean        20 Dec 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  022/035-015/018-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/15
Minor Storm           30/20/05
Major-severe storm    20/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    65/60/20