:Product: 1221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/0732Z from Region 2242 (S18W57). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23
Dec, 24 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
457 km/s at 21/1847Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 21/1825Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 21/1854Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at
21/2015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 400 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (22 Dec) and quiet
to unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec). Protons have
a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23
Dec, 24 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    40/40/40
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Dec 206
Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec 205/200/185
90 Day Mean        21 Dec 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  018/022-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/15/15
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/20/20