:Product: 1222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/0149Z from Region 2242 (S17W71). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24
Dec, 25 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 497 km/s at 22/1645Z. Total IMF reached 26 nT at 22/1657Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 22/0120Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3
pfu at 21/2120Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (23 Dec) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M    80/75/75
Class X    35/30/30
Proton     25/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Dec 179
Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec 175/170/160
90 Day Mean        22 Dec 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec  021/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  013/015-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/10
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    60/20/10