:Product: 1223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
22/2225Z from Region 2241 (S10W47). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (24 Dec) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three
(25 Dec, 26 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
542 km/s at 23/1036Z. Total IMF reached 34 nT at 23/1040Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 23/2001Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14 pfu at
23/1115Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Dec), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (25 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (26
Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (24
Dec) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (25 Dec, 26 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M    75/60/60
Class X    25/20/15
Proton     20/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Dec 166
Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec 160/155/150
90 Day Mean        23 Dec 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  012/016-007/015-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/15/10
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    60/20/10