:Product: 1224RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Dec 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 23/2249Z from Region 2242 (S16W85). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (25 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 615 km/s at 24/0328Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 23/2147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 23/2200Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Dec), quiet levels on day two (26 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Dec). III. Event probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec Class M 50/30/25 Class X 10/05/05 Proton 05/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Dec 151 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 145/140/145 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 009/015-006/008-007/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/10/15 Minor Storm 05/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 30/20/25 Major-severe storm 35/10/20