:Product: 1225RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
25/1211Z from Region 2248 (S20E47). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec,
28 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
557 km/s at 24/2139Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 25/1901Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 25/1838Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 431 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Dec 145
Predicted   26 Dec-28 Dec 140/145/145
90 Day Mean        25 Dec 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec  006/005-007/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/20/30