:Product: 1226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
26/1807Z from Region 2249 (S12W47). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec,
29 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
542 km/s at 26/2100Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 25/2109Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 25/2323Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 304 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (27 Dec,
28 Dec, 29 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Dec 137
Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec 140/145/145
90 Day Mean        26 Dec 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  007/008-008/010-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/30/25