:Product: 1228RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Dec 28 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 28/1759Z from Region 2248 (S19E07). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (29 Dec) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 433 km/s at 27/2257Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 28/1818Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 28/1841Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 646 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec). III. Event probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec Class M 25/20/20 Class X 05/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Dec 133 Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 28 Dec 157 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 007/010-007/010-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 25/25/25