:Product: 1229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
29/1052Z from Region 2250 (N08W68). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Dec,
31 Dec, 01 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 668 km/s at 29/2035Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 29/1508Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 29/1530Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 209
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Dec 132
Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan 130/130/125
90 Day Mean        29 Dec 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  010/010-007/010-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/25/25