:Product: 1230RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
30/0646Z from Region 2251 (S09E18). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Dec,
01 Jan, 02 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 766 km/s at 30/0512Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 29/2101Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 29/2226Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 695
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one, two, and three (31 Dec,
01 Jan, 02 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Dec 130
Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan 135/140/140
90 Day Mean        30 Dec 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  015/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec  014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  012/015-012/015-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/45/45