:Product: 1231RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
31/0648Z from Region 2253 (S06E48). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan,
03 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
660 km/s at 30/2126Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/1702Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/1459Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3631 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jan,
02 Jan, 03 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Dec 134
Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan 140/140/145
90 Day Mean        31 Dec 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  012/010-012/015-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/45/45