:Product: 0101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
01/0507Z from Region 2253 (S07E35). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan,
04 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 632 km/s at
01/0032Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 31/2150Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/1919Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1218 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Jan), unsettled to
active levels on day two (03 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day
three (04 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jan 138
Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan 140/140/145
90 Day Mean        01 Jan 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  008/010-012/015-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/30
Minor Storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/40/40