:Product: 0105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
05/1747Z from Region 2253 (S07W18). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 589 km/s at 05/1911Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 05/0711Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 04/2152Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (07 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three
(08 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jan 142
Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan 150/155/160
90 Day Mean        05 Jan 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  015/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  011/015-007/008-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/35
Minor Storm           10/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/20/50