:Product: 0107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
07/1151Z from Region 2253 (S06W44). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 512 km/s at 07/0616Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 07/0852Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -21 nT at 07/0856Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 282
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (08 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (09 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (10 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jan 147
Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan 155/160/165
90 Day Mean        07 Jan 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan  028/042
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  015/020-013/015-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    65/40/30