:Product: 0109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
09/0817Z from Region 2257 (N07W29). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
557 km/s at 09/0309Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/0327Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/0654Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 226 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Jan,
11 Jan, 12 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jan 151
Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan 155/160/170
90 Day Mean        09 Jan 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  015/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  010/010-009/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/30/30