:Product: 0110RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Jan 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 10/1133Z from Region 2257 (N07W41). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 483 km/s at 10/1500Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/1549Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/1434Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 977 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (13 Jan). III. Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 01/01/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Jan 152 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 155/160/175 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 011/012-007/010-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 30/30/20