:Product: 0113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
13/0424Z from Region 2257 (N07W81). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (14 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
479 km/s at 13/1312Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/0351Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/1107Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 224 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jan), quiet to active levels on day
two (15 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    45/40/35
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 145
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan 145/140/140
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 160

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  006/005-011/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/20
Minor Storm           01/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/40/30
COMMENT: 10 cm Flux is estimated due to lack of Penticton report.