:Product: 0114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
14/1258Z from Region 2257 (N07W93). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan,
17 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
450 km/s at 14/0005Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/1739Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 14/1504Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M    40/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jan 142
Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan 140/140/135
90 Day Mean        14 Jan 160

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  011/015-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/20