:Product: 0115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
14/2324Z from Region 2257 (N07W93). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan,
18 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
478 km/s at 15/0520Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 15/1252Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Jan, 17 Jan)
and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 131
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan 130/125/125
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 160

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  011/010-008/010-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/35
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/30/45