:Product: 0118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
18/0552Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jan,
20 Jan, 21 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 387 km/s at
18/1437Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/1618Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1142Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20
Jan, 21 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jan 126
Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        18 Jan 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  010/012-008/010-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/30/30