:Product: 0122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/0452Z from Region 2268 (S10E67). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan,
25 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
544 km/s at 22/0141Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 21/2248Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 21/2248Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (23 Jan, 24 Jan)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (25 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jan 120
Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan 130/135/130
90 Day Mean        22 Jan 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  012/015-012/015-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/40
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    45/45/60