:Product: 0125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/0229Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan,
28 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 389 km/s at
25/0302Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 25/2042Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/1410Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (26 Jan, 27 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (28 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M    25/25/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jan 127
Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan 130/140/145
90 Day Mean        25 Jan 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  005/005-005/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25