:Product: 0126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/0627Z from Region 2271 (N17W04). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan,
29 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
406 km/s at 26/0746Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 26/0802Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 26/0802Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (27 Jan), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (28 Jan) and unsettled levels on day three
(29 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jan 147
Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan 155/160/160
90 Day Mean        26 Jan 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  012/015-008/010-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/30
Minor Storm           15/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/40