:Product: 0128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
28/0441Z from Region 2268 (S10W05). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
559 km/s at 28/0330Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 28/0402Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 28/0531Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Jan) and quiet to minor
storm levels on days two and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jan 159
Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan 165/170/170
90 Day Mean        28 Jan 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  011/012-012/015-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/35
Minor Storm           05/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/55/55