:Product: 0130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
30/1216Z from Region 2277 (N08E47). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01
Feb, 02 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
466 km/s at 30/1220Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/2153Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/1540Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (31 Jan, 01
Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Feb). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01
Feb, 02 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jan 159
Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb 160/155/150
90 Day Mean        30 Jan 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  014/018-012/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/25
Minor Storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/50/30