:Product: 0201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Feb 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
01/1133Z from Region 2268 (S11W57). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
748 km/s at 01/2006Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/0548Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/1946Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (04 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
day one (02 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
two and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    60/55/55
Class X    20/15/15
Proton     20/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 142
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 135/125/125
90 Day Mean        01 Feb 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  016/020-012/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/35/20
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/35/35
Major-severe storm    70/45/30