:Product: 0202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
01/2126Z from Region 2268 (S11W57). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (03 Feb, 04 Feb) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (05 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 783 km/s at 02/0546Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 02/0220Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 02/0229Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 752
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M    40/30/20
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Feb 140
Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb 135/130/125
90 Day Mean        02 Feb 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb  023/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  012/015-010/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           30/35/30
Major-severe storm    50/30/25