:Product: 0207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Feb 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
07/1754Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
469 km/s at 07/0049Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 07/0632Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 585 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Feb,
09 Feb, 10 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Feb 153
Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb 155/155/150
90 Day Mean        07 Feb 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20