:Product: 0210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
09/2335Z from Region 2282 (N14E51). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb,
13 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
435 km/s at 10/0734Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/1837Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/1250Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 295 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 141
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20