:Product: 0211RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Feb 11 2215 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 11/0521Z from Region 2282 (N11E31). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (12 Feb, 13 Feb) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (14 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 433 km/s at 10/2214Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/1547Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/1059Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 460 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb). III. Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb Class M 30/30/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Feb 131 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 125/122/126 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 008/008-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/20/20