:Product: 0213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Feb 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Feb,
15 Feb, 16 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 373 km/s at
13/1240Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 13/0605Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 13/1623Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 288 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 125
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb 130/135/140
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  008/008-009/012-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/35
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/40/45