:Product: 0214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (15 Feb) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class
flares on days two and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at
14/0112Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/2034Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/1535Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 318 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (15 Feb, 16 Feb) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M    10/25/25
Class X    01/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Feb 120
Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb 120/125/130
90 Day Mean        14 Feb 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  009/012-012/015-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/45/40