:Product: 0215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb,
18 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
386 km/s at 15/1742Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/1336Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 15/0821Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 316 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 120
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb 125/130/130
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  012/012-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor Storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    45/40/20