:Product: 0216RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Feb 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 375 km/s at 16/1919Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 16/1747Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/1901Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (19 Feb). III. Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Feb 118 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 120/125/130 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 151 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 012/015-010/010-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/05 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 35/30/15 Major-severe storm 35/25/05