:Product: 0227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Feb 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Feb,
01 Mar, 02 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 379 km/s at
26/2142Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/0408Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 27/2037Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 366 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Feb) and unsettled
to minor storm levels on days two and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Feb 118
Predicted   28 Feb-02 Mar 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        27 Feb 144

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  012/018-016/022-018/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/60/60