:Product: 0228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Feb 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
28/0939Z from Region 2294 (S13W28). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Mar,
02 Mar, 03 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
466 km/s at 28/2054Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 28/2010Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 28/1931Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 238 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (01 Mar, 02
Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (03 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Feb 123
Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar 130/130/125
90 Day Mean        28 Feb 144

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  016/022-018/020-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor Storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/60/40