:Product: 0301RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
01/1613Z from Region 2290 (N21W83). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 593 km/s at 01/0454Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 28/2148Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 28/2301Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Mar), unsettled
to active levels on day two (03 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (04 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Mar 128
Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar 130/125/125
90 Day Mean        01 Mar 143

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar  023/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  021/025-012/015-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/15
Minor Storm           25/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/20