:Product: 0303RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at
03/0135Z from Region 2290 (now rotated off of the West limb). There are
currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (04 Mar) and likely to
be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three
(05 Mar, 06 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
624 km/s at 02/2228Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/0611Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/2058Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2054 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 Mar,
05 Mar, 06 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M    20/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Mar 125
Predicted   04 Mar-06 Mar 120/120/125
90 Day Mean        03 Mar 142

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  018/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  007/010-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/25