:Product: 0304RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 04 2315 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2015
**********CORRECTION**********
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
04/1039Z from Region 2292 (S08W70). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (05 Mar, 06 Mar)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (07 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
524 km/s at 04/1309Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/1144Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 04/0855Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1283 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (05 Mar,
06 Mar, 07 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M    15/10/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Mar 124
Predicted   05 Mar-07 Mar 120/120/115
90 Day Mean        04 Mar 142

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/25