:Product: 0308RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
07/2222Z from Region 2297 (S17E66). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
614 km/s at 08/0631Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/1158Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/0916Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1636 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Mar, 10 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Mar). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10
Mar, 11 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Mar 124
Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        08 Mar 142

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  015/018-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    45/40/25