:Product: 0311RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
11/1622Z from Region 2297 (S16E14). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
458 km/s at 11/0446Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 11/0712Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 11/0651Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 900 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Mar), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (13 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (14 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Mar 132
Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        11 Mar 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  013/018-021/030-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/30
Minor Storm           10/25/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    45/60/35