:Product: 0312RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Mar 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 12/1408Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 440 km/s at 12/1823Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/0005Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 12/0515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 114 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (13 Mar, 14 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar). III. Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar Class M 70/70/70 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 20/20/20 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Mar 127 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 128/128/130 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 141 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 021/030-015/020-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/30 Minor Storm 30/25/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/15 Minor Storm 20/25/30 Major-severe storm 65/60/40