:Product: 0313RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
12/2151Z from Region 2297 (S16E00). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
478 km/s at 13/1248Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/1824Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/1125Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 144 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Mar), unsettled
to active levels on day two (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (16 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Mar 119
Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        13 Mar 140

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  015/020-012/015-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/45/30