:Product: 0314RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/0440Z from Region 2297 (S17W25). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at
13/2101Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/2309Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0348Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and three (15 Mar, 17
Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Mar). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Mar,
16 Mar, 17 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Mar 116
Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar 115/112/110
90 Day Mean        14 Mar 140

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  012/015-009/010-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/40
Minor Storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/40/50