:Product: 0315RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 15 2305 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/0940Z from Region 2297 (S18W36). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
352 km/s at 15/0448Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 15/1727Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/1426Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at
15/0930Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Mar), quiet to active
levels on day two (17 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (18 Mar). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one
(16 Mar), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (17 Mar) and
have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (18 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     30/35/40
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Mar 114
Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar 115/112/110
90 Day Mean        15 Mar 139

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  008/008-012/015-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/40
Minor Storm           05/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/40/60