:Product: 0316RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/1058Z from Region 2297 (S17W52). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
441 km/s at 16/1957Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 16/1615Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 16/0522Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at
16/0755Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Mar), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (18 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (19 Mar). Protons are likely to cross threshold on days one, two,
and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     60/60/60
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Mar 117
Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar 115/115/110
90 Day Mean        16 Mar 139

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  012/015-014/020-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           15/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/60/50