:Product: 0317RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
17/0152Z from Region 2297 (S16W64). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar) and likely to be low with a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (20 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 673 km/s at 17/1045Z. Total IMF reached 35 nT at 17/1336Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -28 nT at 17/1324Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2
pfu at 17/0045Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (18 Mar), unsettled
to active levels on day two (19 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (20
Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev are likely to cross threshold on days
one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M    40/40/20
Class X    10/10/01
Proton     60/60/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Mar 114
Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar 115/115/110
90 Day Mean        17 Mar 138

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar  071/119
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  021/035-015/018-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor Storm           35/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    70/45/25