:Product: 0318RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/2334Z from Region 2297 (S16W64). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (19 Mar, 20 Mar) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(21 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 727 km/s at 18/2056Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 17/2302Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -19 nT at 17/2236Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3129
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (19 Mar) and quiet
to unsettled levels on days two and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar). Protons
greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (19
Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (20 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M    40/30/20
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     30/20/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Mar 115
Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar 115/110/110
90 Day Mean        18 Mar 137

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  046/118
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar  036/053
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  018/025-008/018-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor Storm           25/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/30/25