:Product: 0319RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
18/2301Z from Region 2302 (N10W73). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (20 Mar) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on day two (21 Mar) and expected to be very low with a
chance for a C-class flares on day three (22 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 762 km/s at 18/2125Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 19/0754Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 19/0754Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14939
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and three (20 Mar, 22
Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Mar). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (20
Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M    20/10/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Mar 109
Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar 110/105/105
90 Day Mean        19 Mar 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  032/046
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar  022/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  015/018-007/008-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/40
Minor Storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    35/25/55